US Think Tank estimates Pakistani Nuclear Arsenal
The US Based Think Tank Carnegie Endowment recently researched about the Pakistani advancement in the Nuclear weapons field, and submit their report to the US Congress, the report comes with some evidences of Pakistan's growing nuclear arsenal, include plans of adding more number of low yield Nuclear warheads, the report also suggest Pakistani Plutonium reactors producing twenty warheads per year, while India producing only five, Pakistan has four plutonium based reactors to produce more number of warheads, while India have only one to Produce nuclear warheads,
The Source of Nuclear materials are available in India very high grade and large quantity, However India invested those resources to produce power and other civil based nuclear research, while Pakistan keep those reactors only for producing warheads, the Think tanks also suggested India choose a good option of using those large quantity of Nuclear materials for civil and Research purposes, at the meantime they produce high Quality high yield of Nuclear weapons to pose credible nuclear deterrence against both Chinese and Pakistan, they also give an example by US made those Nuclear largely for Civil use and research, which give them good warheads in High yield but less numbers, meanwhile Soviet invested heavily to Build Nuclear weapons, which makes their economy down due to safeguarding those weapons and huge amount of maintenance cost. the same what Pakistan was doing now.
Pakistan also gets unlimited nuclear materials from China, to run their Nuclear Reactors, where Nuclear supply Groups Refused to supply Nuke materials to Pakistan, meanwhile India receives high grade of Nuclear materials all over from the World, from Canada to Australia, India has a wide open for external sources, While Chinese unlimited nuclear Fuel gives Pakistan no worry about Nuclear Supply Groups,
Meantime The American Think Tanks also pointed some keys to Stop Pakistani advancements in Nukes
- Shift declaratory policy from “full spectrum” to “strategic” deterrence.
- Commit to a recessed deterrence posture and limit production of short-range delivery vehicles and tactical nuclear weapons.
- Lift Pakistan’s veto on Fissile Material Cut of Treaty negotiations and reduce or stop fissile material production.
- Separate civilian and military nuclear facilities.
- Sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty without waiting for India.
Even if the Pakistani's say the Nuclear weapon program is for Self Defense, however it's threatening India many times,meanwhile India slowly building it's credible Nuclear delivery and pushing it's capability into Nuclear triad, meanwhile Pakistan relies only on it's Variety of Ballistic and Cruise missiles,
Although Pakistan need to be keep their Nukes for deterrence, Because India invested largely in building conventional Forces, which can almost destroy entire Pakistan or have the capability to capture and control entire Pakistani land, without making any issues in economic and civil structures in India, However Pakistan has no other options expect their Nuke Missiles, those Short Range Tactical Ballistic missiles can save the Pakistani's from Indian Offensive forces, which even makes the Pakistani to nuke his self to Stop Indian Army, However long range cruise missiles like Babur and Shaheen Ballistic missiles has the Capability to strike Indian Cities like Delhi and Mumbai,
The risk of Pakistani Nuclear missiles in Terrorists hands is also a major problem, Since many number of Terrorists operating inside Pakistan with the Pakistani government support, if the relation between Pakistan government and Terrorists org broken, they effective choose the Pakistani Nuclear weapons to counter the Pakistani Government, forcing International or Indian intervention into the regional Conflict, Pakistani Nuclear missiles in Terrorists hands is not only a threat to India, it's a threat to American interests in Middle East, include Afghan,
As Three tier of Nuclear Powers, Known by US and Russia comes in First, having capability to deliver barrage of Nuclear attack from it's triad of Nuclear delivery mechanism, currently both of them deployed over 3000 Nuclear Weapons,
The Second tier comprises of UK, France and China, having nuclear weapons in hundreds, even having capability deliver nukes with the triad delivery, each have an deployed warheads of some 300+ with the delivery options of Missiles, Air and Submarine based,
The Third Tier consists of Nations like India Pakistan and Israel, countries didn't signed the NPT agreement, although Indian and Israeli Nukes are considered very safe and secure and under control by the Civilian people elected government, here Pakistan is the only country with rough regime same like North Korea and Iran, threatening nations with Nuclear preemptive Strike. also a threat to civilization. those countries contentiously spreading the nuclear technology to other countries to counter American and western Nations,
An alternate future would result from a decision by Pakistan’s leaders to acknowledge their success in accomplishing strategic deterrence against India and to redirect spending to more pressing concerns; in effect, to de-link Pakistan’s nuclear requirements and capabilities from India’s military programs. We define strategic deterrence as possessing the capabilities necessary to deter worst cases (nuclear exchanges and major conventional warfare) but not lesser threats (such as limited conventional war, proxy wars, sub conventional warfare, sponsored acts of terrorism, and extreme crises) for which the track record of nuclear deterrence is poor, particularly on the subcontinent.42 In this alternate future, Pakistan would retain a powerful nuclear deterrent. Existing capabilities could meet this requirement, and there would be no perceived need to offset qualitative or quantitative improvements in Indian military capabilities. said the Carnegie Researchers,
The Researchers found, that India spend 2.4% of GDP for it's defense needs, that's equals to some $50 billions, and Pakistan spending 3.4 % of it's GDP worth of some $10 billions, with the High economy of India, even smaller percentage hike would over run entire Pakistani defense spending.
As finally the Researches suggested that US should try to convince Pakistan to do those following steps,
A Pakistan that is confident in its success in achieving strategic deterrence would no longer need to adjust to changes in Indian military capabilities. Instead, Pakistan could focus on improving conventional and counter terrorism capabilities, and dedicate greater effort and resources to Pakistan’s domestic and internal security challenges.
Conversely, if Pakistan’s national security managers lack confidence in nuclear deterrence with an arsenal of more than 100 nuclear weapons, they will lack confidence in deterring India with an arsenal twice or three times this size.
A Pakistan intent on competing with India — or out competing India, where possible — will never have enough nuclear weapons because India’s nuclear and conventional capabilities will continue to grow.
Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal offers utility only in deterring worst cases, and if deterrence fails, that utility is lost.
The Entire 48 Page Report available Click here to download.